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Renewable Energy Curtailment: Prediction Using a Logic-Based Forecasting Method and Mitigation Measures in Kyushu, Japan
https://hiroshima.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2006798
https://hiroshima.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/20067987de258a5-a9d1-4154-a571-3c2b38395964
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
Energies_13_4703.pdf (7.1 MB)
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| Item type | デフォルトアイテムタイプ_（フル）(1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2023-03-18 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Renewable Energy Curtailment: Prediction Using a Logic-Based Forecasting Method and Mitigation Measures in Kyushu, Japan | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 作成者 |
Bunodiere, Alex
× Bunodiere, Alex
× Lee, Han Soo
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| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||||
| 権利情報 | ||||||||||
| 権利情報 | © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | renewable energy | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | curtailment | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | mitigation | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | solar | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | grid interconnection | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Kyushu | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述 | High variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration led to the first-ever VRE curtailment in Japan, occurring in Kyushu in October 2018. Since then, there has been an average of 3% solar curtailment, with a peak of 13.7% in April 2019, resulting in approximately ¥9.6 billion of wasted energy. The VRE curtailment is expected to worsen as VRE penetration continues to increase along with nuclear energy increment in line with Japan’s 2030 energy goals. To prevent this curtailment and increase energy stability, a novel, logic-based forecasting method using hourly supply/demand data was developed. Initially, inaccurate results were returned; however, after several rounds of calibration that adjusted the quartile value of the max/min operating windows, the overall accuracy of this method was increased to 97% of real curtailment. This calibrated model was then used to test several curtailment mitigation scenarios. Some scenarios increased curtailment, while the two most successful scenarios, which reduced the installed nuclear capacity either seasonally or totally, limited curtailment by 95% and 97%, respectively. Another scenario with increased grid interconnection between regions reduced curtailment by 79%. Moreover, it would provide other benefits by unifying the national grid thereby increasing disaster resistance, reducing curtailment, improving grid flexibility and allowing for higher VRE penetrations. Currently, the situation is worsening, and some actions are required to reduce the curtailment and to achieve its 2030 energy goals in Japan. The mitigation measures studied by the logic method could be recommended to be referred to. | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | MDPI | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | 10.3390/en13184703 | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184703 | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 1996-1073 | |||||||||
| 開始ページ | ||||||||||
| 開始ページ | 4703 | |||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
Energies Energies 巻 13, 号 18, p. 4703, 発行日 2020-09-09 |
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| 旧ID | 51525 | |||||||||
